Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past
All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Danger & A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
