A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
